SW FL Drought — Current Conditions & Historical Context

Our region is presently under a Modified Phase II “Severe” Water Shortage, declared Jan. 27, 2026, by the SFWMD. This affects all of Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, DeSoto, Hardee, and Sumter Counties, plus portions of Charlotte and Highlands counties, with one‑day‑per‑week watering restrictions in effect Feb 8 – July 1, 2026.

The District reports an estimated 13‑inch rainfall deficit over the past 12 months, alongside declining aquifer, river, and lake levels, many of which are below normal for this time of year.

Earlier drought cycles (e.g., early 2017) showed major Central–South Florida dryness, but this 2026 drought shows more widespread hydrologic deficits, particularly in groundwater and river stages, consistent with the long‑term evaluations from Florida’s Water Management Districts.

Nature’s ‘water balance sheet’ always settles, and drought runs up the tab.